Ok... Six Months ago I diaried this here and I am going to stick with predictions here on Election Eve.
Candidates going either way 49.5% vs. 49%
What do I base this on.... I realize that President Obama has the RV
lead AND I realize that the LV voter numbers are skewed Republican in
this particular race. That said, I believe that voting shenanigans (and I
include vote fixing on machines) in Ohio, and Florida will simply
change dynamics there. I think they will change dynamics enough to throw
those states (yep, I am painting Ohio Red) to Mittens. It will simply
be stealing votes and noting more. If people in Ohio had a fair shake I
think the state would reflect the polls but they don't and their
Republican Secretary of State will make sure that people don't have
As for Florida, Governor Rick Scott treats voting in the same way as
Kim Il Jong did. As we have seen, they are running things like it was a
"third world nation". Personally, I just don't see this one breaking our
way with him in that seat and his administration running the show down
THEN finally, I think Hurricane Sandy will depress voter turnout in
NY and NJ. I think the President STILL wins handily there but, I just
think the after effects of the Hurricane will drop Democratic voter
If there were no Republican shenanigans in Florida or Ohio I would
gladly predict the vote totals to go hard for the President but I just
don't see it at this point. I think it will be within .5% either way.
I think it ends up 272-266 in favor of President Obama... .
How do I get there. I believe the President carries all of his base
states PLUS Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I give
Virginia to the Repubs, along with N.C., Florida, and the too be stolen
I believe that while the Republicans have turned out strong in early
voting in Colorado, I think people underestimate the Latino vote and
what that can do there. Given the President's superior ground game, I
believe that this will be enough to tip the scales to him.
I fully understand that the Ohio scenario seems wacky but given the
events of 2000 (in Florida) and 2004 (in Ohio), I think we have a
Republican party that will stoop to any low to steal an election and
frankly that no one will do anything about it. HOWEVER, I don't think
that they will be able to steal this one because the President is too
strong in all of those other states.
As for the Senate:
I go with my one of my favorite politicians Elizabeth Warren to win
her race. I think that Claire McCaskill wins her race in a nail biter
against Todd "legitimate rape" Akin, BUT I think that Joe Donnelly loses
to Richard "Rape is just G-d's plan" Mourdock because people are just
that stupid (if you doubt me just look at the fact that there are Rep.'s
Bachman, West, Walsh just to name a few).
All in all I think the Dems. hold the Senate at 50-48 (with the independents caucusing with the Dems.)
Now hopefully I am wrong and this is a big win for President Obama.
BUT in all of my years (all 50 of them) I have seen things I list that
make me a bit less optimistic for this election season. STILL, I think
the President will win the election and I would be surprised if he
didn't. I do though, think it will be a nail biter.
There are my predictions... What are yours?