Monday, November 5, 2012


Ok... Six Months ago I diaried this here and I am going to stick with predictions here on Election Eve.

Here goes...

Popular Vote:

Candidates going either way 49.5% vs. 49%

What do I base this on.... I realize that President Obama has the RV lead AND I realize that the LV voter numbers are skewed Republican in this particular race. That said, I believe that voting shenanigans (and I include vote fixing on machines) in Ohio, and Florida will simply change dynamics there. I think they will change dynamics enough to throw those states (yep, I am painting Ohio Red) to Mittens. It will simply be stealing votes and noting more. If people in Ohio had a fair shake I think the state would reflect the polls but they don't and their Republican Secretary of State will make sure that people don't have that.

As for Florida, Governor Rick Scott treats voting in the same way as Kim Il Jong did. As we have seen, they are running things like it was a "third world nation". Personally, I just don't see this one breaking our way with him in that seat and his administration running the show down there.

THEN finally, I think Hurricane Sandy will depress voter turnout in NY and NJ. I think the President STILL wins handily there but, I just think the after effects of the Hurricane will drop Democratic voter numbers.
If there were no Republican shenanigans in Florida or Ohio I would gladly predict the vote totals to go hard for the President but I just don't see it at this point. I think it will be within .5% either way.

Electoral Vote:

I think it ends up 272-266 in favor of President Obama... .

How do I get there. I believe the President carries all of his base states PLUS Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I give Virginia to the Repubs, along with N.C., Florida, and the too be stolen Ohio.

I believe that while the Republicans have turned out strong in early voting in Colorado, I think people underestimate the Latino vote and what that can do there. Given the President's superior ground game, I believe that this will be enough to tip the scales to him.

I fully understand that the Ohio scenario seems wacky but given the events of 2000 (in Florida) and 2004 (in Ohio), I think we have a Republican party that will stoop to any low to steal an election and frankly that no one will do anything about it. HOWEVER, I don't think that they will be able to steal this one because the President is too strong in all of those other states.

As for the Senate:

I go with my one of my favorite politicians Elizabeth Warren to win her race. I think that Claire McCaskill wins her race in a nail biter against Todd "legitimate rape" Akin, BUT I think that Joe Donnelly loses to Richard "Rape is just G-d's plan" Mourdock because people are just that stupid (if you doubt me just look at the fact that there are Rep.'s Bachman, West, Walsh just to name a few).

All in all I think the Dems. hold the Senate at 50-48 (with the independents caucusing with the Dems.)
Now hopefully I am wrong and this is a big win for President Obama. BUT in all of my years (all 50 of them) I have seen things I list that make me a bit less optimistic for this election season. STILL, I think the President will win the election and I would be surprised if he didn't. I do though, think it will be a nail biter.
There are my predictions... What are yours?


  1. Wow, that's bucking the conventional wisdom.

    I'm going to take a cue from the desperation of Republicans, who have even stopped trolling fivethirtyeight. I'm going to say that Obama wins what you have him winning, plus Ohio and Virginia. Of the true swing states, Romney gets Florida and Colorado.

    For Senate, I think Donnelly wins, and maybe even Tester, so the Senate ends up 53-47.

    1. Well you know... I don't really like convention :)

      I have been reading 538 and I really admire Nate for his analysis. I just think that there are more Republicans who will turn out than predicted AND I think honestly that they will cheat in FL and OH.

      I really hope Donnelly wins. Mourdock is a nut. So is Akin. The Republicans really are miserable.